Tier III: Perfect-model experiments (CESM2, MPI-ESM, GISS)

[duncanwp]

Description

Test whether data-driven models can predict the future climate of existing ESMs when trained on their present-day output.

Specification

• Train on ESM historical output (pre-2015), predict SSP2-4.5 future
• CESM2 (ECS ≈ 5.2 K): required for ML models — hardest test
• MPI-ESM (ECS ≈ 3.63 K): extended
• GISS ModelE2 (ECS ≈ 2.31 K): extended
• Evaluate using same Tier II metrics
• Models used for training must have been initialized before the test period (no data leakage)

Required simulations

Perfect model × 3 ESMs (~85 years each)