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Add offline uncertainty inference with exact conditioning and joint forecasts - #178

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yichao-liang merged 56 commits into
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pr/09-uncertainty-inference-20260914
Sep 15, 2026
Merged

yichao-liang merged 56 commits into
masterfrom
pr/09-uncertainty-inference-20260914

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Second of four stacked PRs splitting bridge-learning (commits 2ca1c8453..4fc84c7c4, 56 commits).

Summary

Adds offline uncertainty inference for learned simulators under predicators/code_sim_learning/inference_*.py:

  • Legacy inference preserved behind an adapter, with explicit offline replay of continual recordings and observation-channel reconstruction.
  • Physical continuation state and candidate prefix replay; Domino task caches keep the initial robot configuration.
  • Exact affine/Gaussian conditioning, robot joint and articulated priors, rigid assembly and planar support priors, and rejection sampling of feasible priors.
  • Output-error marginalization, coupled orientation error, finger readout reduction, and a complete offline likelihood.
  • Joint batch SMC sampling with proposal blocks, tempering schedules, resumable stage checkpoints and process-safe isolated workers.
  • Posterior-weighted information scores, assessed joint posterior forecasts, causal future scoring and conditional path integration diagnostics.
  • scripts/audit_inference_replay.py plus validation records under docs/uncertainty/.

Checks

yapf, docformatter, isort, mypy and pylint pass locally on this tree.
The full unit test suite was run locally in file shards; the only failures are test_bilevel_sketch_samplers::test_refine_and_validate_report_returns_plan, test_pg3_analogy_approach and test_boil_sketch_refinement, which fail identically on origin/master when run outside CI's shard order.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

@yichao-liang
yichao-liang force-pushed the pr/09-uncertainty-inference-20260914 branch from 2b7a8e4 to 2cd52f7 Compare September 14, 2026 21:14
@yichao-liang
yichao-liang force-pushed the pr/09-uncertainty-inference-20260914 branch from 2cd52f7 to 572c3c5 Compare September 15, 2026 11:19
@yichao-liang
yichao-liang changed the base branch from pr/08-continual-balloons-20260914 to master September 15, 2026 11:19
@yichao-liang
yichao-liang merged commit b62fa06 into master Sep 15, 2026
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@yichao-liang
yichao-liang deleted the pr/09-uncertainty-inference-20260914 branch September 15, 2026 13:26
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