Give every Toronto ward a brief, its statistics, and its incumbent

scripts/data/README.md

@@ -0,0 +1,69 @@
+# scripts/data
+
+Checked-in intermediates for the `scripts/gen-*.mjs` generators. Each one is a
+small, human-auditable extract of a larger official file, so the generators can
+run with no extra dependencies and a reviewer can diff the numbers.
+
+## toronto-ward-census-2021.csv
+
+Per-ward figures for Toronto's 25-ward model, extracted from the City of
+Toronto's own ward profiles. Consumed by `scripts/gen-ward-profiles.mjs`, which
+emits `src/app/toronto/vote/2026/wardStats.ts`.
+
+- Dataset: Ward Profiles (25-Ward Model), City of Toronto Open Data
+  https://open.toronto.ca/dataset/ward-profiles-25-ward-model/
+- Underlying source: Statistics Canada, 2021 and 2016 Census of Population
+- Files used:
+  - `2023-wardprofiles-2011-2021-censusdata_rev0719.xlsx`
+    (sheets "2021 One Variable" and "2016 Census One Variable")
+  - `2023-wardprofiles-geographicareas.xlsx` (ward land area)
+
+The `ward` column is the zero-padded ward token used throughout the app
+("01".."25"), plus one `toronto` row holding the citywide figure for each
+column so the UI can show every ward against the city.
+
+Column provenance, by row number in the "2021 One Variable" sheet:
+
+| column | source row |
+| --- | --- |
+| `pop_2021` | 19 — Total - Age |
+| `pop_2016` | 19 of the "2016 Census One Variable" sheet |
+| `median_age` | 40 — Median age |
+| `dwellings_total` | 44 — Total - Occupied private dwellings by structural type |
+| `single_detached` | 45 — Single-detached house |
+| `apt_5plus` | 50 — Apartment in a building that has five or more storeys |
+| `tenure_total` | 55 — Total - Tenure (includes band housing) |
+| `owned` | 56 — Owned |
+| `rented` | 59 — Rented |
+| `hhtype_total` | 114 — Total - Household type |
+| `one_person_hh` | 124 — One-person households |
+| `privhh_pop` | 144 — Total - Immigrant status and period of immigration |
+| `immigrants` | 146 — Immigrants |
+| `edu_total_15plus` | 997 — Total - Highest certificate, diploma or degree |
+| `bachelor_plus` | 1007 — Bachelor's degree or higher |
+| `med_hh_income` | 1385 — Median total income of households in 2020 ($) |
+| `avg_rent` | 1392 — Average monthly shelter costs for rented dwellings ($) |
+| `tenant_burden_30` | 1393 — % of tenant households spending 30%+ on shelter |
+| `avg_owner_cost` | 1396 — Average monthly shelter costs for owned dwellings ($) |
+| `owner_burden_30` | 1397 — % of owner households spending 30%+ on shelter |
+| `lim_at_rate` | 1405 — Prevalence of low income (LIM-AT), % |
+| `area_sq_km` | ward land area, from the geographic-areas file |
+
+Counts are Statistics Canada's, and are rounded to the nearest 5 at source, so
+percentages derived from them carry that rounding. Refresh this file when the
+City publishes ward profiles for the 2026 Census.
+
+## toronto-ward-councillors.csv
+
+The councillor sitting for each of Toronto's 25 wards. Consumed by the same
+generator, which emits `src/app/toronto/vote/2026/wardCouncillors.ts`.
+
+- Dataset: Ward and Elected Councillor, City of Toronto Open Data
+  https://open.toronto.ca/dataset/wards-and-elected-councillors/
+- Columns: the zero-padded `ward` token, the `councillor` holding it, and the
+  `date_effective` the City records for that row.
+
+Refresh after any by-election, and again once the 2026 results are declared.
+Whether a councillor is seeking re-election is deliberately *not* recorded
+here — that is read off the live candidate roster at render time, so it cannot
+go stale. See `wardProfile()` in `src/app/toronto/vote/2026/wardProfiles.ts`.

scripts/data/toronto-ward-census-2021.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
+ward,pop_2021,pop_2016,median_age,dwellings_total,single_detached,apt_5plus,tenure_total,owned,rented,hhtype_total,one_person_hh,privhh_pop,immigrants,edu_total_15plus,bachelor_plus,med_hh_income,avg_rent,tenant_burden_30,avg_owner_cost,owner_burden_30,lim_at_rate,area_sq_km
+toronto,2761285,2691665,39.6,1160895,270350,542625,1160885,602910,557970,1160890,385530,2761285,1286140,2377950,976620,84000,1562,40,2038,25.6,13.2,
+01,115120,116955,38,38135,11270,15980,38130,20790,17340,38130,7785,115115,64675,96620,22120,81000,1328,34.2,1664,23.5,12.9,48.37
+02,117200,116055,45.2,45345,21860,17860,45345,30565,14780,45345,11105,117205,48485,99900,37540,100000,1574,39.2,1930,18.8,7.9,37.35
+03,139920,127525,40.8,65575,18585,30645,65570,37310,28260,65575,24520,139920,54670,121460,54175,90000,1592,40.9,2108,24.7,11,39.99
+04,104715,106445,40,49445,8855,18955,49440,21610,27835,49440,19625,104715,32400,89700,45405,85000,1492,39.7,2280,20.3,12,15.33
+05,115675,115130,40.4,45055,13190,18300,45050,21685,23370,45050,12850,115675,58205,97205,17910,72000,1196,34.8,1660,22.3,14.7,24.98
+06,107355,103760,41.6,41265,10350,17860,41270,20535,20735,41270,11095,107360,59525,91800,30650,82000,1448,36.1,1918,25.3,11.5,35.36
+07,111200,107725,37.6,37675,4690,15480,37675,18070,19605,37675,8280,111200,62700,92430,16310,73000,1261,33.2,1622,24,15.1,30.7
+08,114820,112920,41.2,45910,17190,15340,45910,24515,21395,45915,14090,114820,44725,95710,45065,97000,1588,38,2418,20.3,10.1,22.66
+09,104730,107395,38.4,45670,6470,8520,45670,23650,22025,45670,14995,104730,39645,91630,34340,85000,1552,41.3,1910,21.6,10.8,12.1
+10,135400,114315,32.8,80730,500,71070,80735,33845,46885,80735,42205,135405,53910,126130,82560,89000,1988,43.7,2290,35.2,14.1,12.81
+11,102385,100520,36.8,53510,4180,27355,53505,23085,30420,53505,24065,102385,34755,93395,57405,84000,1976,48.8,2592,29.8,15.3,13.6
+12,114095,104940,39.6,58110,8850,32900,58110,22430,35680,58110,25500,114095,40430,100635,57100,86000,1768,44.6,2492,24.8,12.5,13.12
+13,116930,99590,34.8,68965,250,58730,68965,20665,48300,68965,37570,116935,48730,107625,58605,65000,1520,43.1,2172,35.1,22.2,5.86
+14,104555,105395,40.8,46235,8410,10185,46235,25380,20855,46235,16025,104555,31915,88370,40500,93000,1424,37.8,2138,18.2,11.5,20.8
+15,101025,101790,41.2,40030,14730,16035,40030,20815,19215,40030,11845,101025,41420,83725,46220,102000,1716,40.9,2968,21.8,12.6,30.3
+16,94335,93165,41.2,38285,5425,22545,38285,16940,21340,38285,11695,94335,50390,79750,29065,78500,1492,39.1,1846,26.1,14.4,22.96
+17,112590,109055,40.4,45780,8825,25675,45785,25990,19790,45785,12555,112590,68280,98425,48980,84000,1754,43.6,1904,31.4,14.4,24.42
+18,117130,117400,39.2,50550,12425,30705,50555,29340,21210,50555,15970,117125,70535,103695,57030,81000,1880,49.3,2202,37.6,17.8,19.76
+19,108500,108440,41.2,45705,12790,11505,45700,25515,20190,45700,14595,108500,34420,89815,38480,89000,1370,38.6,2168,18.3,11.9,16.8
+20,110095,108290,40.8,41905,14850,14260,41905,22735,19165,41905,11655,110095,50370,91970,28980,79000,1196,32.3,1872,22.7,13.9,28.14
+21,111560,110445,40,40565,13880,16840,40560,23045,17520,40560,10070,111560,61670,94595,27210,78000,1338,35.8,1668,26,13.3,28.21
+22,103690,104230,45.2,38345,11075,18080,38350,25370,12975,38350,9200,103690,66065,90390,28905,77000,1358,36,1640,32,14.7,21.4
+23,94025,97610,42.8,29545,11790,6630,29545,23465,6085,29545,4420,94025,60740,80925,21660,87000,1408,33.3,1636,28.8,11.8,30.44
+24,102755,101110,38.4,36240,12225,17140,36245,19925,16320,36245,8655,102755,54840,85580,25115,78000,1197,31.6,1776,25.4,14.7,26.11
+25,101485,101445,42,32315,17685,4025,32315,25650,6665,32315,5160,101485,52660,86445,25270,105000,1362,32.7,1802,20.7,7.8,54.08

scripts/data/toronto-ward-councillors.csv

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+ward,councillor,date_effective
+01,Vincent Crisanti,2025-04-16
+02,Stephen Holyday,2025-04-16
+03,Amber Morley,2025-04-16
+04,Gord Perks,2025-04-16
+05,Frances Nunziata,2025-04-16
+06,James Pasternak,2025-04-16
+07,Anthony Perruzza,2025-04-16
+08,Mike Colle,2025-04-16
+09,Alejandra Bravo,2025-04-16
+10,Ausma Malik,2025-04-16
+11,Dianne Saxe,2025-04-16
+12,Josh Matlow,2025-04-16
+13,Chris Moise,2025-04-16
+14,Paula Fletcher,2025-04-16
+15,Rachel Chernos Lin,2025-04-16
+16,Jon Burnside,2025-04-16
+17,Shelley Carroll,2025-04-16
+18,Lily Cheng,2025-04-16
+19,Brad Bradford,2025-04-16
+20,Parthi Kandavel,2025-04-16
+21,Michael Thompson,2025-04-16
+22,Nick Mantas,2025-04-16
+23,Jamaal Myers,2025-04-16
+24,Paul Ainslie,2025-04-16
+25,Neethan Shan,2025-04-16

scripts/gen-ward-profiles.mjs

@@ -0,0 +1,216 @@
+// Generate Toronto's per-ward Census statistics (wardStats.ts) from the
+// checked-in extract of the City's own ward profiles.
+//
+//   node scripts/gen-ward-profiles.mjs
+//
+// Inputs  scripts/data/toronto-ward-census-2021.csv  (see scripts/data/README.md
+//         for every column's provenance in the City's XLSX)
+//         scripts/data/toronto-ward-councillors.csv
+// Outputs src/app/toronto/vote/2026/wardStats.ts
+//         src/app/toronto/vote/2026/wardCouncillors.ts
+//
+// The statistics are the generated half of a ward's profile; the hand-written
+// half — the brief prose — lives in wardProfiles.ts and this script never
+// touches it. Same split as wardGeo.ts (generated) and candidates.ts (by hand).
+//
+// Every stat is emitted pre-formatted as a display string, with the citywide
+// figure alongside it, because the only consumer is a UI that wants to print
+// "45.5%" next to "48.1% citywide" — not to do arithmetic. Deliberately
+// dependency-free: this runs once per Census release.
+
+import { readFileSync, writeFileSync } from "node:fs";
+
+const INPUT = "scripts/data/toronto-ward-census-2021.csv";
+const OUT = "src/app/toronto/vote/2026/wardStats.ts";
+const COUNCILLORS_INPUT = "scripts/data/toronto-ward-councillors.csv";
+const COUNCILLORS_OUT = "src/app/toronto/vote/2026/wardCouncillors.ts";
+
+// ── Read ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+const lines = readFileSync(INPUT, "utf8").trim().split(/\r?\n/);
+const header = lines[0].split(",");
+const rows = new Map(
+  lines.slice(1).map((line) => {
+    const cells = line.split(",");
+    const row = Object.fromEntries(header.map((h, i) => [h, cells[i]]));
+    return [row.ward, row];
+  }),
+);
+
+const city = rows.get("toronto");
+if (!city) throw new Error(`${INPUT}: no "toronto" row for citywide figures`);
+
+const WARDS = [...rows.keys()].filter((w) => w !== "toronto").sort();
+if (WARDS.length !== 25) {
+  throw new Error(`${INPUT}: expected 25 wards, found ${WARDS.length}`);
+}
+
+// ── Format ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+const num = (row, key) => {
+  const raw = row[key];
+  if (raw === undefined || raw === "") return null;
+  const n = Number(raw);
+  if (!Number.isFinite(n)) throw new Error(`${key}: not a number (${raw})`);
+  return n;
+};
+
+const need = (row, key) => {
+  const n = num(row, key);
+  if (n === null) throw new Error(`ward ${row.ward}: ${key} is empty`);
+  return n;
+};
+
+const count = (n) => n.toLocaleString("en-CA");
+const money = (n) => `$${n.toLocaleString("en-CA")}`;
+const pct = (n) => `${n.toFixed(1)}%`;
+const share = (part, whole) => pct((part / whole) * 100);
+const signedPct = (n) => `${n >= 0 ? "+" : "−"}${Math.abs(n).toFixed(1)}%`;
+
+/** Population change since the 2016 Census, as a display string. A ward that
+ *  moved by less than 0.05% would print as "+0.0% since 2016", which reads as
+ *  a rounding artefact rather than the fact it is, so it is spelled out. */
+const popChange = (row) => {
+  const change = (need(row, "pop_2021") / need(row, "pop_2016") - 1) * 100;
+  if (Math.abs(change) < 0.05) return "No change since 2016";
+  return `${signedPct(change)} since 2016`;
+};
+
+// Each entry is one row of the ward profile: a label, the ward's value, the
+// citywide value to read it against, and an optional note under it. `city`
+// returns null where a citywide comparison is meaningless (density).
+const STATS = [
+  {
+    label: "Population",
+    ward: (r) => count(need(r, "pop_2021")),
+    note: (r) => popChange(r),
+  },
+  {
+    label: "Residents per km²",
+    ward: (r) => count(Math.round(need(r, "pop_2021") / need(r, "area_sq_km"))),
+    city: () => null,
+    note: (r) => `${need(r, "area_sq_km").toFixed(1)} km² of land`,
+  },
+  {
+    label: "Median household income",
+    ward: (r) => money(need(r, "med_hh_income")),
+  },
+  {
+    label: "Renter households",
+    ward: (r) => share(need(r, "rented"), need(r, "tenure_total")),
+    note: (r) => `${money(need(r, "avg_rent"))} average monthly rent`,
+  },
+  {
+    label: "Renters spending 30%+ of income on housing",
+    ward: (r) => pct(need(r, "tenant_burden_30")),
+  },
+  {
+    label: "Homes in buildings of five storeys or more",
+    ward: (r) => share(need(r, "apt_5plus"), need(r, "dwellings_total")),
+    note: (r) =>
+      `${share(need(r, "single_detached"), need(r, "dwellings_total"))} single-detached`,
+  },
+  {
+    label: "Residents born outside Canada",
+    ward: (r) => share(need(r, "immigrants"), need(r, "privhh_pop")),
+  },
+  {
+    label: "Residents in low income",
+    ward: (r) => pct(need(r, "lim_at_rate")),
+    note: () => "Low-income measure, after tax",
+  },
+];
+
+const statsFor = (row) =>
+  STATS.map((stat) => {
+    const entry = { label: stat.label, value: stat.ward(row) };
+    const cityValue = stat.city ? stat.city(row) : stat.ward(city);
+    if (cityValue !== null) entry.cityValue = cityValue;
+    const note = stat.note ? stat.note(row) : null;
+    if (note !== null) entry.note = note;
+    return entry;
+  });
+
+// Serialised by hand rather than with JSON.stringify over an object, because
+// JS reorders integer-like keys ("10" before "01") and the emitted file should
+// read 01..25 for whoever reviews the diff.
+const table =
+  "{\n" +
+  WARDS.map(
+    (w) =>
+      `  "${w}": ${JSON.stringify(statsFor(rows.get(w)), null, 2).replace(/\n/g, "\n  ")},`,
+  ).join("\n") +
+  "\n}";
+
+// ── Emit ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+const file = `// AUTO-GENERATED — do not edit by hand.
+// Toronto's per-ward Census statistics, formatted for display.
+// Source: Ward Profiles (25-Ward Model), City of Toronto Open Data, from
+// Statistics Canada's 2021 and 2016 Census of Population.
+// https://open.toronto.ca/dataset/ward-profiles-25-ward-model/
+// Regenerate with: node scripts/gen-ward-profiles.mjs
+// The hand-written briefs that accompany these live in ./wardProfiles.ts.
+
+import type { WardStat } from "@/components/elections/WardProfile";
+
+/** Statistics for each ward, keyed by the zero-padded ward token ("01".."25"),
+ *  in the order they should be shown. */
+export const WARD_STATS: Record<string, WardStat[]> = ${table};
+
+/** Where these figures come from, worded for the source line shown under a
+ *  ward's statistics. */
+export const WARD_STATS_SOURCE =
+  "the 2021 Census of Population, via the City of Toronto\u2019s ward profiles";
+`;
+
+writeFileSync(OUT, file);
+console.log(
+  `${OUT}: ${WARDS.length} wards × ${STATS.length} stats, ${(Buffer.byteLength(file) / 1024).toFixed(1)} KB`,
+);
+
+// ── Sitting councillors ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+/* Who holds each seat today, so a ward page can name the incumbent when they
+   register to run again. Whether they have is not knowable here — it comes
+   from the live candidate roster — so this file only says who sits, and the
+   page decides whether to show them. */
+
+const councillorLines = readFileSync(COUNCILLORS_INPUT, "utf8")
+  .trim()
+  .split(/\r?\n/);
+const councillorHeader = councillorLines[0].split(",");
+const councillors = councillorLines.slice(1).map((line) => {
+  const cells = line.split(",");
+  return Object.fromEntries(councillorHeader.map((h, i) => [h, cells[i]]));
+});
+
+if (councillors.length !== 25) {
+  throw new Error(
+    `${COUNCILLORS_INPUT}: expected 25 councillors, found ${councillors.length}`,
+  );
+}
+
+const effective = [...new Set(councillors.map((c) => c.date_effective))].sort();
+
+const councillorFile = `// AUTO-GENERATED — do not edit by hand.
+// The councillor sitting for each Toronto ward, as of ${effective[effective.length - 1]}.
+// Source: Ward and Elected Councillor, City of Toronto Open Data.
+// https://open.toronto.ca/dataset/wards-and-elected-councillors/
+// Regenerate with: node scripts/gen-ward-profiles.mjs
+//
+// Refresh this after any by-election, and again once the 2026 results are in.
+// Nothing here says whether a councillor is seeking re-election — that is read
+// off the live candidate roster; see wardProfiles.ts.
+
+/** The sitting councillor for each ward, keyed by the zero-padded ward token
+ *  ("01".."25"). */
+export const WARD_COUNCILLORS: Record<string, string> = {
+${councillors
+  .map((c) => `  "${c.ward}": ${JSON.stringify(c.councillor)},`)
+  .join("\n")}
+};
+`;
+
+writeFileSync(COUNCILLORS_OUT, councillorFile);
+console.log(`${COUNCILLORS_OUT}: ${councillors.length} councillors`);

src/app/toronto/vote/2026/wardCouncillors.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,39 @@
+// AUTO-GENERATED — do not edit by hand.
+// The councillor sitting for each Toronto ward, as of 2025-04-16.
+// Source: Ward and Elected Councillor, City of Toronto Open Data.
+// https://open.toronto.ca/dataset/wards-and-elected-councillors/
+// Regenerate with: node scripts/gen-ward-profiles.mjs
+//
+// Refresh this after any by-election, and again once the 2026 results are in.
+// Nothing here says whether a councillor is seeking re-election — that is read
+// off the live candidate roster; see wardProfiles.ts.
+
+/** The sitting councillor for each ward, keyed by the zero-padded ward token
+ *  ("01".."25"). */
+export const WARD_COUNCILLORS: Record<string, string> = {
+  "01": "Vincent Crisanti",
+  "02": "Stephen Holyday",
+  "03": "Amber Morley",
+  "04": "Gord Perks",
+  "05": "Frances Nunziata",
+  "06": "James Pasternak",
+  "07": "Anthony Perruzza",
+  "08": "Mike Colle",
+  "09": "Alejandra Bravo",
+  "10": "Ausma Malik",
+  "11": "Dianne Saxe",
+  "12": "Josh Matlow",
+  "13": "Chris Moise",
+  "14": "Paula Fletcher",
+  "15": "Rachel Chernos Lin",
+  "16": "Jon Burnside",
+  "17": "Shelley Carroll",
+  "18": "Lily Cheng",
+  "19": "Brad Bradford",
+  "20": "Parthi Kandavel",
+  "21": "Michael Thompson",
+  "22": "Nick Mantas",
+  "23": "Jamaal Myers",
+  "24": "Paul Ainslie",
+  "25": "Neethan Shan",
+};