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Prediction-Powered MT Evaluation

This repository contains the reproducibility code for the experiments in Which Metrics Save the Most Human Annotation? Prediction-Powered Evaluation and Meta-Evaluation.

The code has two goals:

  • Reproduce the paper's empirical results from exported WMT metric evaluation score files.
  • Provide reusable implementations of the paired tests, prediction-powered intervals, and the Prediction-Powered Saving Ratio (PPSR).

Repository Structure

  • configs/: dataset definitions and metric filtering rules used by the paper experiments.
  • datasets/: exported WMT score TSVs and dataset_summary.csv. These files are generated from mt-metrics-eval.
  • experiments/: command-line scripts for each paper experiment.
  • src/ppi_mt_eval/: reusable library code for data loading, paired tests, interval estimators, PPSR/meta-metrics, plotting, and progress reporting.
  • scripts/: convenience scripts for reproducing the full experimental pipeline.
  • results/: generated CSV tables, figures, configs, and runtime logs.

Setup

Create an environment and install the package in editable mode:

python -m venv .venv
source .venv/bin/activate
python -m pip install -U pip
python -m pip install -e .

The dataset export step requires mt-metrics-eval. If it is unavailable from your package index, install it from the official repository following its documentation.

Export Datasets

The WMT score TSVs are generated with mt-metrics-eval.

The paper uses six datasets:

  • WMT22: en-de, en-ru, zh-en
  • WMT23: en-zh, ja-en
  • WMT24: cs-uk

To export the WMT score TSVs used by the paper, run:

python experiments/export_datasets.py

This writes files such as datasets/wmt24.cs-uk.tsv and creates a dataset summary at datasets/dataset_summary.csv.

If you already have compatible TSV files, place them under datasets/ using the same naming convention:

datasets/<test-set>.<language-pair>.tsv

For example:

datasets/wmt22.en-de.tsv
datasets/wmt24.cs-uk.tsv

Full Reproduction

Run all paper experiments with:

bash scripts/run_all.sh

The script runs the pipeline in a fixed order: dataset export, basic power analysis, confidence-interval experiments, non-parametric power analysis, Type I error simulations, paired-vs-unpaired variance analysis, PPSR/meta-metric analysis, ranking-stability experiments, metric score/rank table generation, and annotation-saving validation.

Full reproduction can be computationally expensive, especially for experiments involving permutation tests and SPA. All outputs are written under results/.

Each experiment script can also be run directly. For example:

python experiments/ppsr_discriminative_power.py --num-workers 6
python experiments/ppsr_ranking_stability.py --num-workers 6

Use --help on any experiment script to inspect its available options.

Experiment Outputs

Output directories include:

  • results/basic_power: empirical power for human-only, auto-only, and prediction-powered paired Z-tests.
  • results/confidence_intervals_basic: confidence-interval width and coverage for human-only and prediction-powered intervals using MetricX/BLEU.
  • results/confidence_intervals_gemba: GEMBA auto-only, human-only, and prediction-powered confidence intervals.
  • results/nonparam_power_analysis: paired Z-test versus paired permutation test power comparisons.
  • results/type_i_error_simulation: synthetic Type I error simulations for standard Z, oracle Z, and permutation tests.
  • results/type_i_error_metric_mean_shift_simulation: synthetic Type I error simulations illustrating the role of centering metric scores in the prediction-powered permutation test.
  • results/paired_vs_unpaired: paired versus unpaired variance comparisons.
  • results/ppsr_discriminative_power: discriminative power for PPSR and system-level meta-metrics.
  • results/segment_meta_metric_discriminative_power: discriminative power for PPSR and segment-level meta-metrics.
  • results/ppsr_ranking_stability: ranking stability for PPSR and system-level meta-metrics.
  • results/segment_meta_metric_ranking_stability: ranking stability for PPSR and segment-level meta-metrics.
  • results/ppsr_metric_rank_tables: LaTeX tables of metric scores and ranks.
  • results/annotation_saving_vs_ppsr: relationship between PPSR and empirical annotation savings.

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