check_ont_ratchet.sh probes a BARE pv (`pvbin="$(command -v pv)"`) — on a fleet-clobbered runner (pv 0.65.2, no census) it reads 'no consumer' and REDs an honest anchored rise; check_apr_bin_pinned.sh is blind to the form

[noahgift]

What happened (measured 2026-09-21, #3669 guard-tree job 106269529439, head 55b123f2f)

check_ont_ratchet.sh FAILed: contracts_anchored rose 3 -> 6 while consumer_present=false. The consumer probe (scripts/check_ont_ratchet.sh:45-57) is:

pvbin="$(command -v pv 2>/dev/null || true)"
help_out="$("$pvbin" --help 2>&1 || true)"
grep -qE '^[[:space:]]+census[[:space:]]' <<<"$help_out" || return 1

That's a bare pv from PATH. On intel the fleet pin is being clobbered to 0.65.2 (paiml-implement#315), and 0.65.2 has no census. So the probe answers "no consumer" about the runner, not about the tree. In-tree pv has census (ONT-1 landed: contracts/census.json is produced by it). It's the same class as #3567 (the shapes gate on an unpinned pv), and it's the sibling that #3567's repair didn't touch.

The pinned-binary guard is blind to this form. check_apr_bin_pinned.sh:503 must-match table: 'PV=$(command -v pv)' 'require_tool pv "x"' 'which pv'. It has no row for <anyvar>="$(command -v pv …)", so a lowercase variable name and a redirect walk past it.

done_when

• the probe resolves pv the way PMAT-3567: the shapes gate on the FLEET-PINNED pv, on the runner it executes on — resolved the way forjar installs it, version proved against the pin #3633 resolves it (fleet-pinned, version proved against the pin), and a runner whose pv cannot answer prints UNMEASURED naming the version, never consumer_present=false. A version too old to judge is not evidence of absence.
• a self-test row: a stub pv without census on PATH plus a pinned pv WITH census gives consumer_present=true (RED-turning: revert the resolution and the row fails)
• check_apr_bin_pinned.sh case table gains must-match rows pvbin="$(command -v pv 2>/dev/null || true)" and x=$(command -v pv), and the scan finds this site before the fix (the mutation proof)

Found by the cop while triaging #3669's reds. #3669 takes the restamp (make ont-ratchet with a census-capable pv); this row is the root cause. Refs #3567, paiml-implement#315.

[noahgift]

triage 2026-09-23 (aprender-dd): kept in 0.70.0 and labelled ont-0.70. Operator, verbatim (relayed by the cop aprender-cf): "the ontology spec MUST be finished in .7". Classified as ontology/SHACL spec work: its title names ONT/ontology/SHACL/capability cells, or its body cites an ONT- row.

[noahgift]

a2 (0.70.0): all three done_when items are met on batch/0.70.0 via 719bf1a. Re-verified at a49b6f3:

• check_ont_ratchet.sh --self-test: 45/45.
• Mutant (line 92 reverted to command -v pv): 3 rows go RED (rc 1).
• check_apr_bin_pinned.sh --self-test: 83 regex cases + 9 surface probes OK, including the pvbin="$(command -v pv 2>/dev/null || true)" and x=$(command -v pv) must-match rows.
  No new code needed. This closes when the batch merges.